Post by Tom (Saskatchewan Sluggers) on Jan 22, 2009 20:49:41 GMT -5
This is ESPN's Keith Law and his top 100 MLB prospects for 2009 list. Some of you may be insiders, but I thought I'd post this for some of the less fortunate ones out there. Keep in mind, this is just his opinion and quite frankly, I disagree with many of his rankings. Don't make any judgments on whether or not you've made good picks based on where he ranks these prospects.
This is the first 50. Unfortunately, copy and paste didn't work so well, so I apologize if the format is all screwed up. I went through and deleted a bunch of the unnecessary stuff like player age and highest level reached in minors, as those were space wasters and made it more difficult to read. It might be jumbled in some places, but it should be readable.
RANK NAME POSITION ORGANIZATION
1 Matt Wieters C Baltimore Orioles
Wieters is typically compared to one of two current big-leaguers: Mark Teixeira and Joe Mauer. Those are tough comps to hang on a player who has yet to sniff the big leagues, but in Wieters' case, they're merited.
Wieters' similarities to Teixeira don't end with their common alma mater of Georgia Tech or the fact that each was selected with the fifth overall pick (Teixeira in 2001, Wieters in 2007). Like Teixeira, Wieters is a switch-hitter with plus hit and power tools from both sides. He's a little more fluid from the left side with slightly better raw power, but he could stand on his head and still be short to the ball and get good extension on his follow-through. His plate discipline is strong and improving, and he's filled out since college, adding power to the point where he's at least major league average right now. He does glide a little bit on both sides, but it has no discernible effect on his ability to hit.
Like Mauer, Wieters is an offensive catcher with a plus arm who makes everything he does look easy. He's consistently around 1.9 seconds from home to second - I've never gotten anything over 1.96 from him - and his receiving skills have improved dramatically since he entered Baltimore's system. And like Mauer, Wieters is big for the position; he's not as thick as Mauer, who was a high school football star, but he's 6-5 with long limbs and is, like all tall catchers, at risk for knee trouble over the very long term. If he has to spend the last half of his career at another position, his bat will play anywhere on the diamond.
Wieters could start 2009 in the majors, although giving him a one-month stint in Triple-A would give Baltimore the advantage of another year of control before Wieters hits free agency. Other than that possibility, there's nothing stopping him from becoming an impact catcher from Day One.
2 David Price LHP Tampa Bay Rays
I would offer to introduce Price, but he seems to have already introduced himself. Price, like Wieters, is ready to play in the majors right now, although he has a little more development ahead of him that may have to come at the big league level.
Price is primarily a two-pitch pitcher today, working at 90-94 mph as a starter but sitting around 94 as a reliever and bumping up to 97. His slider is his out pitch - ask the Red Sox about it - in the low to mid-80s with very good tilt; he can lengthen it against lefties or shorten its break against righties. He does throw a changeup, also in the low 80s, with good action, but it's far enough behind his other two pitches that the Rays had him put it aside for his September callup. He'll need to continue to develop that pitch and improve his fastball command to reach his ceiling as a No. 1 starter, and his workload may be somewhat limited since he threw only140 innings in total in 2008 (including Triple-A and postseason action with the Rays). Given more development time, whether in Durham or in St. Petersburg, he will become a workhorse at the top of the Rays' rotation who racks up strikeouts and shuts down hitters on both sides of the plate.
3 Jason Heyward RF Atlanta Braves
The first round of the 2007 draft looks like it's going to turn out a half-dozen stars or well above-average big leaguers, if not more, with Heyward at the top of the list of its high school products. Even at age 17, Heyward was a physical specimen, already 6-4 and well-built with room to add muscle as he gets older. He controls the strike zone well, both laying off pitches out of the zone and working himself into hitters' counts; his contact rate was one of the best in the South Atlantic League this year despite his relative youth. He gets his arms extended well, setting up slightly away from his body, so the ball down or over the outer half is well within his reach. Atlanta has moved him from center to right field; he has a plus arm and above-average range now that he's out of the middle of the field. His upside is just a question of power; he's going to hit for average and be an asset in the field. His swing and body point to 30-plus homers a year, which, coupled with a healthy on-base percentage and defensive value, would make him one of the most valuable players in the game.
4 Neftali Feliz RHP Texas Rangers
Feliz was something of a known quantity last offseason, having come over to Texas in the Mark Teixeira trade, but he was just a very live arm with no full-season experience and only 72 pro innings in total. He started 2008 by obliterating Midwest League hitters and continued to miss bats after a two-level jump to Double-A. Coming from a low 3/4 slot, Feliz has some of the easiest velocity you will ever see, mostly 94-97 mph but dialing up and down a little as needed. He turns his changeup over well, especially considering his arm slot, and gets good fading action on it, so it's not surprising that his strikeout rate against left-handed hitters was 28 percent higher than it was against right-handed hitters. His slider is still inconsistent; it's short, a good sign for someone who has a little bit of sling in his delivery, but the pitch can back up on him. He'll have to return to Double-A this year and refine his command and control, since he can't just blow it by hitters as he did in low A, but he could also show up in the majors at some point in 2009 depending on his own progress and the Rangers' place in the standings.
5 Travis Snider OF Toronto Blue Jays
Snider was rushed to the majors this year, but to some degree it's his own fault, as he never stumbled after any of his previous promotions and continued to hit in the majors despite a big drop in his contact rate. Snider is a fair athlete who should have defensive value -- especially from his arm -- but the bulk of his value will be in his bat. His setup and swing are very simple, and his path to the ball is short, so he should be able to hit for a good average even if he's striking out 140 times a year, and he's already showing good power and projects as plus down the road. He looks a little stiff, but is an average runner and more than adequate in right field, with a 60 arm. Putting him directly into Toronto's lineup this year is probably too aggressive -- he was the youngest position player to get a major league at bat in 2008 -- but he should be a big league regular by Opening Day 2010 and an impact player two or three years after that.
6 Madison Bumgarner LHP San Francisco Giants
A year ago, Bumgarner was a live arm, a projectable body, and a name to file away for the future. He only started throwing breaking balls late in his high school career, and the rudimentary secondary stuff plus his low arm slot had scouts -- including me -- assuming he was a long way away from the majors. His slider made enormous strides in his first full year in pro ball, and his changeup is now solid-average, no small feat for a pitcher who throws from a low 3/4 slot. He's unusual for pitchers of his ilk in that his arm action is fairly short and compact; many pitchers who throw from below 3/4 get long in the back, almost slinging the ball, and have trouble turning over a changeup or staying on top of breaking balls as a result. His command and control are both above-average, and he was aggressive in going after South Atlantic League hitters, who stood little chance against him. The Giants were careful with Bumgarner in 2008, but there's a good chance he finishes this year in Double-A and shows up in the majors at some point in 2010.
7 Lars Anderson 1B Boston Red Sox
Anderson is the best of a fairly deep class of first base prospects in the minors right now, separating himself by his relative youth and advanced approach. Anderson has outstanding plate discipline for a prospect his age - or any age, really, but his relative youth makes it much more impressive. His career OBP sits at .404, and you can see a cerebral approach to the strike zone. As a hitter, Anderson has a high setup and makes a big, quick first move down to get into hitting position; once he gets started, he's very short to the ball and makes a lot of hard contact with good backspin. He has the swing and physical potential to hit 30-plus home runs, but is still working out which pitches to pull and which pitches to take to the opposite field. He's adequate at first base despite being a well below-average runner. Despite the fact that he finished 2008 with a strong performance in Double-A, Anderson is a few years away from becoming an impact big-league hitter with both a high OBP and big power, but he has the complete package and only requires development time to get there.
8 Buster Posey C San Francisco Giants
Posey presents a very balanced set of tools that, given his position, make him among the most valuable properties in the minor leagues. A recent convert from shortstop who also pitched a little in college, Posey is a plus defensive catcher with a plus arm (he pitched in the low 90s), soft hands, and a lot of energy at a position that demands it. At the plate, he has a compact stroke, excellent bat control, and a good eye, so while he doesn't project to hit for more than average power, he should make plenty of hard contact and end up a doubles hitter with 15-20 home runs per year. The combination of a projected plus hit tool and currently plus defense make him a very high-probability prospect -- he plays in the big leagues no matter what, be it as a quality backup if he never improves at all or as a star everyday catcher if he reaches his offensive ceiling.
9 Tommy Hanson RHP Atlanta Braves
Hanson made the top 100 last year as a bit of a sleeper whose upside made him worthy of the relatively high ranking, but in 2008 he cemented his status as one of the top pitching prospects in the game. Hanson projects as a potential No. 1 starter, with a four-pitch arsenal headlined by a 92-95 mph fastball and a plus curveball with great depth. He's 6-6 and gets good angle on his pitches, thanks in part to the work of the late Myrtle Beach pitching coach, Bruce Dal Canton, in keeping him over the rubber. He still has room to fill out physically and perhaps add a little velocity, and adding a slider last year gave him yet another weapon to miss bats. Hanson has a few areas for improvement -- his changeup is below average, so he doesn't have a real out pitch against lefties; his command and control are both below average, although he can just overpower minor league hitters, which keeps him below the top 10. He's probably less than a year from contributing in the majors.
10 Rick Porcello RHP Detroit Tigers
The Tigers, typically aggressive with their top prospects, started the 18-year-old Porcello in high-A this year, one of only two high school arms from the 2007 draft to do so (the other -- San Francisco's Tim Alderson -- is also on this list). He responded, but not in the way you might have expected. Porcello can dial it up to the mid-90s, but has settled in as a low-90s; he's a strike-throwing, ground-ball-generating machine, throwing two-seamer after two-seamer and not having to rely on the sharp curveball he used in high school. He doesn't miss a lot of bats with the new approach, but generating ground balls keeps the pitch count down, and pitchers who throw strikes and don't give up home runs can be very successful. But bear in mind that Porcello has the raw stuff to be more of a strikeout pitcher, and when he reaches the majors, he could blend the two approaches and be one of the top pitchers in the game.
11 Tim Beckham SS Tampa Bay Rays
The first pick and best overall prospect in the 2008 draft, Tim Beckham was mildly disappointing in his first taste of pro ball, although there were no major red flags. Beckham has average or better tools across the board, with the potential to be plus in every tool if his power develops fully. He was better on defense than at the plate last summer; he's athletic and fast with an above-average arm, but his footwork needs improvement. At the plate, he has some mechanical issues to work through as he transitions to the wood bat, including a deep setup and slight wrap. He has very quick wrists and uses the whole field well, so the changes he needs to make are incremental and not drastic. He did make plenty of contact in the Appalachian League, especially considering his age, but he'll need to improve his patience and find a way to get his bat to the ball a little sooner to reach his full potential.
12 Colby Rasmus CF St. Louis Cardinals
Don't hurt yourselves jumping off the Colby Rasmus bandwagon, OK? Rasmus played his entire injury-plagued 2008 season in Triple-A at age 21, and by the time he made a few adjustments and started hitting, he hit the disabled list twice and played just five more games before the season ended. (After an 0-for-22 stretch in mid-May, Rasmus hit .336/.444/.517 over 171 plate appearances until he hurt his groin on July 1.) The scouting report on Rasmus hasn't changed: He still has quick hands and gets the bat to the ball quickly, projects to have plus power, is an above-average runner, plays a solid center field, has the arm to play right, and shows a generally advanced feel for the game given his age. He also has a history of good plate discipline and solid contact rates. So, please, before you send him off in endless trade proposals, remind me again what's not to like here?
13 Carlos Santana C Cleveland Indians
In 2007, Santana hit .223/.318/.370 in the Midwest League, didn't make Baseball Prospectus' list of the top 11 Dodgers prospects, and didn't crack the top 20 on Baseball America's list. Now, after hitting a combined .330/.435/.569 in high-A -- walking more than he struck out -- he projects as a middle-of-the-order, switch-hitting run producer who, by the way, is a legitimate big league catcher. Santana has a very compact swing and makes a lot of hard contact, but he also has enough strength in his upper body to generate power despite the short swing. Behind the plate, he's a good receiver and has an above-average arm, but needs to work on his game-calling. Given his tremendous control of the strike zone and above-average power, he has very little to do to turn into an average big league catcher, but there's a high probability that he develops into much more.
14 Josh Vitters 3B Chicago Cubs
Vitters started the year slow due to a hand injury, ended up returning to short-season ball, and hit everything in sight. He has an easy, smooth, quick swing that would be that classic "sweet" left-hander's swing if it wasn't for the fact that he hits right-handed. He doesn't have great loft in his swing, but is strong and makes extremely hard contact; he led the Northwest League in doubles at age 19 and as he fills out a little bit, some of those will go over (or through) the wall. He's fringe-average at third base; he has plenty of arm and his footwork is improving, although he's not likely to ever be plus over there. If there's a concern, it's the very low walk total; he's not a hacker or even impatient, but is very aggressive, and that works as long as he's ahead of the pitchers and can make so much solid contact. If his patience doesn't improve and he doesn't continue to hit .320-plus, his ceiling will start to drop. If the patience comes, he's a potential No. 3 hitter who'll hit plenty of doubles and 25-plus home runs with a high average.
15 Justin Smoak 1B Texas Rangers
Smoak signed on Aug. 15 -- deadline day -- and had just 56 at-bats in the regular season. But once he started hitting, he didn't stop 'til mid-November. In 124 total plate appearances between the Midwest and Arizona Fall Leagues, he hit .327/.411/.551 with five homers. Smoak is often compared to Mark Teixeira, and there's some logic to it, as both are switch-hitting first basemen with big power and plus gloves. I think of Smoak as more of a switch-hitting Adrian Gonzalez -- he doesn't have quite the same raw power as Teixeira, but has a very disciplined approach at the plate and does have a plus glove at first. Smoak is legit from both sides of the plate, centering the ball extremely well and showing power both to pull and to the opposite field. His path to the ball is short and he sets up almost loaded, with a short move backwards serving as his trigger. His only flaw as a player is his complete lack of speed, which limits him to first base, but he's an excellent fielder there his bat would play anywhere on the diamond.
16 Fernando Martinez OF New York Mets
Martinez's big issue is staying healthy; he has yet to reach 400 plate appearances or play in 100 games during any of his pro seasons, excluding winter ball. This is a shame, because Martinez has a special bat and the injuries plus some aggressive promotions have obscured it. Martinez offers huge power potential, putting on a display in BP, but it has only briefly started to emerge in games. He has very quick and strong wrists, letting the ball travel on him before exploding quickly and making solid, hard contact. In the field, he's looking more likely to end up in right field; the Mets have one of the game's best center fielders in the big leagues and don't need to groom Martinez for that position. His pitch recognition, while good for his age, hasn't progressed over the last two years, and the more he's pushed up the system the less likely it is that the skill will develop. Martinez has now played the equivalent of a full season in Double-A before his 20th birthday, and the Mets are faced with the difficult decision of whether to promote him to Triple-A because he has "graduated" from the lower level or return him to the Eastern League for the third consecutive year so he can work on his plate discipline and, maybe, catch his breath.
17 Eric Hosmer 1B Kansas City Royals
Hosmer had just gotten his feet wet in pro ball after signing late last summer when the Pirates decided to drag him into their argument with Scott Boras and Pedro Alvarez, costing him a handful of at bats at the end of the Pioneer League's season; fortunately, he's talented enough to overcome the loss of a little development time. Hosmer was the top high school bat in the 2008 Rule 4 draft; he has quick wrists and shows big raw power, especially on any pitch that allows him to get his arms extended. Like a lot of left-handed power hitters, he doesn't like the ball in on his hands, but the hole is small and he can make a pitcher pay for a mistake that catches a little too much plate. Hosmer was also a decent pitching prospect in high school, touching 94 mph, so he has the arm to play right field and is probably enough of an athlete to handle it as well; at worst, he's a plus defender at first. He should be in the middle of Kansas City's lineup in three or four years.
18 Andrew McCutchen CF Pittsburgh Pirates
Andrew McCutchen has been rushed. Repeat after me: He … has … been … rushed. This isn't a criticism of the current regime in Pittsburgh, as the rushing all took place before Neal Huntington could even get a catalog to pick out new drapes for his office, but they inherited a player who had arrived in Triple-A before his 21st birthday despite posting a .710 OPS in Double-A, a level he reached after the Pirates skipped him right past high-A. He's been rushed, I say. The good thing is that he has survived this hazing and even performed well in several areas, notably his plate discipline. McCutchen has strong wrists and forearms and makes hard contact, but doesn't get his lower half involved at all and thus hasn't hit for the kind of power he's capable of producing. He has great bat speed and has hit for average while making plenty of contact. He's a 65-70 runner but had an uncharacteristically sloppy year as a base stealer; he's a plus glove in center but could use a little work on routes. The power should come -- he's too young for us to assume that it won't -- and the new regime in Pittsburgh has a much better player-development protocol in place.
19 Brett Wallace 3B St. Louis Cardinals
Wallace was the best pure hitter in this year's draft, but fell to the Cardinals due to questions about his ultimate position. He's playing third base right now, and the Cardinals intend to keep him there until he plays himself off it; he has plenty of arm and is fine on balls in front of him, but lacks lateral range … severely. Still, his bat is so special that if he can improve to just a win below average at third, he'll be a star. He makes hitting look easy -- he hits lefties (.387/.479/.484 in 62 at bats last year) and righties, all pitches, all areas of the zone, whatever's thrown at him -- and has pull power to right and doubles power the other way. Sure, his body type is unusual for a pro baseball player -- he has enormous thighs, but it's muscle, not fat, and emphasizing that only detracts attention from what really matters: Brett Wallace will hit.
20 Brett Anderson LHP Oakland A's
Anderson took a huge step forward this year, both in terms of his stuff and in his track record when he showed he could succeed both in the tough California League and in a short stint in Double-A. Anderson is a command left-hander with an out-pitch curveball and an average changeup that projects as plus. The curve has a very sharp, almost spiking two-plane break; he maintains good arm speed on the changeup and it runs late towards his arm side. His main weakness was always his fastball, but his velocity has been improving and he's now solid-average as a starter. He showed in the Futures Game that he can bump it up to 94 or so in a short stint. He commands all of his pitches, can pitch to both sides with his fastball, and releases the ball late to get a little advantage on the hitter. His arm action is a little long, and he comes a little across his body; other than that quibble, he looks like a very solid mid-rotation starter with a chance to be a two or even a one.
21 Derek Holland LHP Texas Rangers
Holland's isn't the biggest jump on to the list this year, but it might be the most surprising. Texas wasn't on Holland when he was in junior college until they saw him at the NJCAA World Series a few weeks before the 2006 draft, and they took a flier on him in the 25th round as a draft and follow. His velocity has since increased; he was 88-91 mph the following spring, then was 90-93 in the summer of '07 in Spokane. By the middle of 2008, he was already in Double-A, sitting 93-95 and touching 98, with natural bore and cut to the pitch and uncanny command. His changeup is already an above-average pitch, and he held right-handed hitters to a .215/.268/.305 line across three levels this year. His slider is still a work in progress, but it's improving, and he has enough command and deception to get left-handed hitters out in the minors. He doesn't have the raw upside of Feliz, but he's not far behind him in potential and is ahead of him in command and feel for pitching, and is the most likely of Texas' horde (pun intended) of pitching prospects to contribute to the big club in 2009.
22 Carlos Triunfel 2B/SS Seattle Mariners
Triunfel opened a lot of eyes in the Arizona Fall League as the circuit's youngest player, showing tremendous natural aptitude for hitting and more than adequate fielding at second base. Triunfel sets up with his hands high, and they're so quick that he closes to the ball in no time, hitting line drives to all fields but rarely trying to pull the ball out, even though he probably could at the cost of some contact. Triunfel's performance this year was more impressive than it looks at first glance. For one thing, he started the year 3-for-39, then hit .307/.355/.433 the rest of the way, a period that included a suspension for violating team rules and a 3-for-46 stretch in June. For another, he was 18 in high-A, a level generally populated by players in their early 20s, and not only did he perform well, but he rarely struck out, a good sign that he was rarely (if ever) overmatched. He's an above-average runner and a good base stealer. He's a natural shortstop but played second in the Fall League, showing good hands and a good transfer on the double play.
There are some concerns on Triunfel. The suspension is one, his age is another. His listed date of birth is Feb. 27, 1990, which would mean he'll play all of 2009 at age 19, but as a Dominican prospect who's already put together physically, some have questioned his age. If he's really about to turn 21, he's still a good prospect, but not a potential star. There's no firm evidence to back up the questions, though, so for now, we'll assume he's going to turn 19 and is still on track for stardom.
23 Logan Morrison 1B Florida Marlins
Morrison is strong, very strong, with plus raw power already; when he squares up, the ball absolutely flies off his bat. He's a tick below Anderson because of the latter's patience, but Morrison has more raw power. Morrison does have a pretty advanced approach at the plate himself, and his 2008 numbers were depressed by the pitcher-friendly environment of the Florida State League. Morrison does have some mechanical issues that keep his swing inconsistent; he's on his front foot a little early, and he tends to get under the ball, but the fact that he can hit as well as he does despite not squaring the ball up as often as some other prospects is testament to his strength. Florida's first base job is open -- you could argue it's been open for at least a year -- but whoever fills it in 2009 may miss a few throws because he's too busy looking over his shoulder.
24 Trevor Cahill RHP Oakland A's
Cahill's two-seam fastball is just toxic. He sits in the low 90s but has ridiculous sink on the pitch -- a hard, late, diving action that has led to protests outside his home stadium by People for the Ethical Treatment of Worms. Hitters who can't hit it swing right over it; the only solution is to try to lay off it and hope that he's forced to elevate the pitch or go to one of his secondary pitches, none of which can measure up to the Nastygram. Cahill's best offspeed offering is his spike curveball, which is inconsistent but at times has a sharp downward bite; it's a notoriously tough pitch to command, although the fact that he can snap off a good one is a good sign that he could throw a pretty effective "regular" curveball if the A's feel he'll never quite command the spike. His slider is slurvy and he doesn't have great feel for it or for his changeup, which is more of a show-me pitch right now. His season ended early when he strained his rib cage at the Olympics, and the A's wisely shut him down. He has more upside than system-mate Brett Anderson, but lacks Anderson's command and assortment of quality secondary stuff, meaning he has more development ahead of him before he can be a top- or near-top-of-the-rotation starter.
25 Desmond Jennings OF Tampa Bay Rays
Jennings missed two months with back trouble to start the year, then hurt his non-throwing shoulder while rehabbing the back. He tried to play through the shoulder injury, but lasted just 102 plate appearances in 2008 before surgery ended his regular season, although he came back to play on the Peoria Javelinas' taxi squad in the Arizona Fall League. The lost year of development hurts, but Jennings remains a top prospect due to his tool set and tremendous feel for the game. Jennings is a great athlete, a plus-plus runner who's well-built and has a compact stroke geared toward contact. He is strong enough and should be big enough to hit 20-25 homers a year (if not more), but his power hasn't shown up in games yet, and it's not likely to do so until he's 100 percent physically. He also has outstanding baseball instincts in the field, on the bases, and even at the plate, where he shows good pitch recognition. He gets a mulligan on his '08 stats because he was never fully healthy, and gets knocked down a peg here because of the potential for recurrent back trouble down the road, but he still has star potential as a center fielder who can hit and adds value on the bases.
26 Tim Alderson RHP San Francisco Giants
Alderson was one of only two high school pitchers from the 2007 draft to start the year in high-A -- Rick Porcello was the other -- and he had the added challenge of pitching in the hitter-friendly California League, although San Jose is itself a pitcher's park within that circuit. He spent the entire year there at age 19 and was outstanding, ending the season on a six-start run where he walked one batter over 37 innings while fanning 28.
He sits with a solid-average fastball at 90-94 mph with the promise of more velocity in the future, and his hard curveball is already plus, with tight rotation and a late two-plane break. With Bumgarner making so much progress with his secondary stuff, he's passed Alderson for a couple of reasons. One is Alderson's funky delivery; he lands on a slightly stiff front leg, and to get the ball to his glove side, he ends up throwing across his body due to a low arm slot. His changeup really hasn't progressed through one year in pro ball, leaving him vulnerable to lefties.
The delivery works, so the Giants aren't likely to alter it; if the changeup improves at all with use, his plus-plus command and out-pitch breaking ball give him the upside of a No. 2 or 3 starter.
27 Matt LaPorta 1B Cleveland Indians
LaPorta is what he is (or what you thought he was, if you thought about him at all before this sentence): a slow, patient slugger, stuck at first base, whose power and on-base skills will make him a productive middle-of-the-order hitter and who is ready for the majors now.
LaPorta's power is prodigious, and he gets very good extension through the ball; he's strong enough to power the ball out the other way but can get too pull-conscious. His swing is a little long, but he hasn't had trouble making contact through Double-A, fanning in just 19 percent of his plate appearances in pro ball.
To the extent that he continues that, he can be more than just a three-true-outcomes player and would elevate himself from "above-average regular" to "potential star."
28 Brian Matusz LHP Baltimore Orioles
Though Matusz's only pro experience to date came in the Arizona Fall League because he signed late, he's the type of pitcher who can move very quickly through the minors because of his plus secondary stuff, the likes of which many A-ball hitters only see in nightmares.
Matusz throws the kitchen sink at hitters, and none of his pitches is below-average. His fastball sits in the low 90s and touches 94; it's straight, but he'll cut it in the upper 80s for a different look. He throws and commands an 11/5 (1/7 if you prefer, since he's left-handed) curveball with very tight rotation; it breaks downward very late, so a left-handed hitter thinks it's going to be inside only to find himself directed benchward after a called third strike. He has excellent arm speed on his changeup and the pitch has both tumble and fading action.
So why isn't Matusz higher on this list? One reason is the lack of pro experience, which means we have very little idea of his timetable beyond projecting his stuff. The other is his fastball; the velocity is fine, but it's straight, and he has to spot it well or rely more heavily on his secondary stuff, an approach that can work but has some drawbacks, like the increased stress on an elbow from throwing a lot of breaking balls.
His arm action is short and he keeps his pitching elbow low, and the Orioles have cleaned him up -- keeping him more upright through his delivery -- since he signed, so I'm optimistic that he can handle a lifetime of pitching a little bit backwards and develop into a No. 1 or 2 starter.
29 Cameron Maybin OF Florida Marlins
Maybin still has huge upside and youth on his side, but his problems making contact aren't going away with experience, even after Florida slowed him down and let him spend an entire year at one level.
Maybin has plus raw power, and when he makes contact the ball takes off. The problem is with the frequency of his contact: He has a long and inconsistent swing with a tendency to glide, and struck out in 27 percent of his plate appearances in Double-A an increase from his rate in 2007. He hit a robust .375 on balls in play in Double-A, but only .277 overall.
When Maybin gets a fastball or mediocre offspeed pitch, he's dangerous. But he can be beaten with better offspeed stuff or by a pitcher who can expand the zone on him. These aren't uncommon problems, but for Maybin, they're not dissipating over time.
He may turn out to be more of a Mike Cameron type of player: low average and contact rates, but power, speed and plus defense, with a better arm than Cameron's. Cameron has been a good and valuable (if underappreciated) player for a decade now, so that's a good outcome for Maybin, but if his pitch recognition improves -- which is still possible since he turns 22 in April -- he has the potential to be much more.
30 Dexter Fowler CF Colorado Rockies
Fowler was one of the top players to just miss my list last year due to concerns about his swing. He has always been a plus defender in center with good speed. He showed patience as soon as he reached pro ball, but he had swing issues from both sides of the plate; it's not surprising that he had issues from the left side, since he's only been switch-hitting since instructional league in 2004, but he was leaking badly as a right-handed hitter as well.
The Rockies have done a great job cleaning up both swings -- he keeps his weight back much better now than he did as recently as late 2007, and he does a better job keeping his hands inside the ball when he's hitting left-handed. He's still obviously more comfortable hitting right-handed, but the improvement on both sides is a great sign, and he shows above-average power from the left side when he gets his arms extended on balls out over the plate.
Fowler's a plus runner -- albeit a below-average base stealer -- and covers a lot of ground in center. He gets good marks for makeup and work ethic, and given the strides he's already made, there's reason to expect further improvement.
31 Mike Stanton OF Florida Marlins
Stanton's raw power is probably the best in the minors -- comfortably a 70 on the 20-80 scale, and that's present power, not future. Stanton was a mess as a high school hitter, but Florida's coaching staff overhauled his swing in his first instructional league after the 2007 season, and the results have been … well, stunning.
Stanton hit 39 homers as a true 18-year-old in the Sally league, and he improved as he went along: He had 10 home runs at the end of May, and then hit 29 the rest of the way over 333 plate appearances, a rate of 52 homers per 600 PA (roughly a full major-league season).
Stanton is a big kid with long limbs, and his swing does get very long, leading to a lot of strikeouts and a reasonable expectation that he's going to be a three-true-outcomes hitter (walks, strikeouts and home runs). He's played some center, but he's going to end up in a corner, probably right field but possibly first base. As long as he continues to make enough contact, the power will carry him to the majors.
32 Jose Tabata OF Pittsburgh Pirates
Your guess is as good as mine at this point. Tabata can hit, and for most of his pro career, he has hit, with a career .296/.366/.401 line up through Double-A. Almost all came before his 20th birthday. But Tabata took the first few months of 2008 off, at least mentally; he showed up at the ballpark, but his attitude was horrible -- failing to run out ground balls, not working at-bats and earning a suspension for throwing a tantrum on the field after a call went against him.
I'm sure Yankee fans who saw him play or followed his 0-fers in the box scores were absolutely galled to see him go to the Pirates and turn the jets back on, as he hit .348/.402/.562 with 11 extra-base hits (he had just 12 in four months with the Yankees) and eight stolen bases in just 22 games. That's the Jose Tabata who was in my top 10 two years ago: a teenager who showed he could hit against older competition in full-season ball.
When Tabata feels like it, he can hit. He has outstanding hand-eye coordination and recognizes pitches well, so he squares balls up well and doesn't swing and miss that often. (Even during his off year in Trenton this past season, he only struck out in 15 percent of his plate appearances.) He has above-average power, but it hasn't shown up in games other than his tiny sample with Altoona. He can run, and does it well, going 18-for-20 in steals over all of 2008.
The Pirates have returned him to center field for now, but the presence of Andrew McCutchen makes it unlikely that Tabata will play there in the majors; he has the range and plus arm to be an asset in right. Where he goes from here is up to him. He could end up in the top 10 again next offseason if he plays hard all year in 2009, and he's indicated to Pirates' brass that he realizes he needs to grow up. If not, he'll just keep dropping until he's off the list entirely.
33 Wade Davis RHP Tampa Bay Rays
Davis' stock slipped a little this year with a mid-summer lull where his velocity was down and he changed his own approach, throwing too many two-seamers and ignoring his own destiny as a power pitcher. He did recover the lost velocity and improved his pitch selection in the second half of the season, carrying it through a promotion to Triple-A in July.
Davis sits 92-95 with two good breaking balls, a hard downer curveball and a sharp slider with good tilt in the mid-80s. His changeup has improved but still is below-average, and he has a tendency to pitch around lefties rather than go after them, which could be the result of a lack of confidence in the changeup.
Like a lot of young power guys, his command and control lag behind his stuff, and he wasn't challenged enough at lower levels to have to improve them. A good half-year or more in Triple-A should help, and the Rays are fortunate enough to have the depth to allow Davis to develop on his own schedule.
34 Angel Villalona 1B San Francisco Giants
It may be unfair to drop Villalona this far, given his youth, but we do have more insight now into just how raw of a prospect he is. Villalona played almost all of 2008 at age 17, and was the youngest player in the full-season Sally League, where he showed plenty of power but also demonstrated problems with pitch recognition that aren't going to go away if he's just pushed up the ladder.
Villalona can murder a fastball or any mistake in his hitting zone, but he struggles with anything soft and away and with better off-speed stuff. Once he's behind in the count, he's not coming back. He drew just 15 unintentional walks this year in exactly 500 plate appearances (but was walked intentionally three times, so he was clearly feared). He's not all-or-nothing, as he has a pretty wide hitting zone and can adjust a little bit to some breaking balls.
The Giants have already moved him to first base -- no small task -- and conditioning will always be a concern, as he's thick-bodied already and was not in great shape for spring training in 2008. He would just now be entering his senior spring if he had been born in the U.S., and yet already has a year and a half under his belt in pro ball, so we can't evaluate him by the same standards we might use for other hitters.
The upside is still there and is tremendous -- four- or five-hole hitter, lots of power, probably never a good OBP -- but it's going to take some time.
35 Jarrod Parker RHP Arizona Diamondbacks
Parker continues to look like one of the best picks in the first round of 2007, one that right now appears to have been historically deep in teenaged arms.
Parker has grown since high school, so questions about his height should be gone, as he's a legit 6-foot-1 and has filled out as well. He'll still sit 94-95 and bump 98, but it's the four-pitch mix that sets him apart from other flamethrowers, especially as his changeup has come on -- not a pitch he needed often in high school -- and will even flash above-average. The slider remains his out pitch with hard, late tilt.
He's a great athlete with good feel for pitching given his age and relative inexperience, and he commands all four pitches he throws. His main weakness is that his fastball lacks movement, and he's likely to be a fly ball pitcher headed toward a big-league park that converts fly balls into home runs with alarming regularity.
He heads to the Cal League in 2009, which should be a good test of his fastball command and ability to mix his pitches to avoid having hitters sit on the heat.
36 Gordon Beckham SS Chicago White Sox
Beckham doesn't always do it pretty, but it seems to work for him, as he has incredible instincts, enough that the "ballplayer" label might be more than just a cliché for him.
Beckham's first move at the plate is down and slightly back, a hitch that makes it harder for him to catch up to better fastballs or adjust at the last second to an off-speed pitch, but he manages because of very quick wrists. He also helps himself by cheating a little on his front side.
His natural range at shortstop is a little limited, but good game awareness helps him overcome that, as he positions himself extremely well, and his hands and arm are fine for the position. He could handle second base, but he should be allowed to stay at short until it becomes absolutely necessary to move him.
He's the anti-Alexei Ramirez: Beckham's feel for the game makes his tools play up, and he's much more substance than flash.
37 Martin Perez LHP Texas Rangers
Perez signed with Texas in late 2007 for more thana half-million dollars, and didn't make his pro debut until 2008 when he went to the advanced short-season Northwest League shortly after turning 17. Perez earns a lot of comparisons to another Venezuelan lefty, Johan Santana, as well as physical comparisons to Ron Guidry.
He already has a solid-average fastball and plus curveball with good depth, with excellent command of both pitches, something unusual in a pitcher his age. He's quite thin but has room to fill out and his fastball should end up in the low 90s, if not a little better, while his changeup projects as plus, although it's below-average right now as he lacks feel for it.
Like all shorter pitchers (shorter being a relative term, as Perez is close to 6-feet tall), he has to work to generate downhill plane, but a little more velocity wouldn't hurt either. He won't turn 18 until April 4, so he may be a one-level-per-year guy in the short term, but he has the feel for pitching and the chance for three above-average pitches that would make him shoot up the system.
38 Pedro Alvarez 3B/1B Pittsburgh Pirates
Alvarez needs to consider hiring a publicist, as just about every story about him over the past seven months has been unflattering, from the minor scandal when he and his agent, Scott Boras, called the Pirates out for violating the terms of the CBA and then settled for a $250,000 dollar increase in Alvarez's signing bonus to recent reports that he was out of shape in the Pirates' mini-camp and is already experiencing tendinitis in his knees. Conditioning has always been an issue for Alvarez dating back to his freshman summer with Team USA, and it's the main reason he's likely to end up at first base.
At the plate, Alvarez is strong and has a high-effort swing that produces big power and lots of hard contact, mostly to right and right-center, but he has struggled with left-handers. In general, he didn't make enough contact in the SEC after coming back from a broken hamate (hand) bone. His setup, with an extremely wide base that doesn't give him much chance to adjust to offspeed stuff, isn't helping, but it's fixable. Plus, you can't teach the kind of raw power Alvarez has.
The bonus kerfuffle cost him any chance to play in 2008, even in winter ball, so all we have now are year-old scouting reports and questions about his conditioning and commitment. He could be in the top 10 next year with a full, healthy season in which he addresses concerns about his ability to make contact.
39 Elvis Andrus SS Texas Rangers
Andrus had more than 1,550 plate appearances in full-season leagues before his 20th birthday, and 2008 was his best year yet in a career that's been more about tools and promise than performance. Andrus' only tool that doesn't project as plus is his power, which could end up as average because he makes such hard contact but isn't likely to surpass that.
He does everything else easily: he's got an easy swing, using the whole field and working the count well for someone who doesn't take many walks; he's a plus runner; he has a strong, accurate arm and throws effortlessly; and he's a plus defender at short with a lot of range (something Texas hasn't exactly had over there for a few years) and fast hands.
He's been so young for everywhere he's played that he hasn't had a chance to develop fully as a hitter, but it's a testament to his skill set that he has survived, and even performed well this year in Double-A with a .295 average and .350 OBP. He's penciled in as Texas' starting shortstop this year because of his defense, but if the line for 2009 is an OPS of .700, I'd take the under.
Down the road, once he's old enough to stay up past the seventh inning, he should be a top-of-the-order hitter, hitting for average and getting on base while adding value with his speed.
40 Chris Tillman RHP Baltimore Orioles
Tillman just missed the cut last year -- he would have been in the next five names -- but took a big step forward this year that makes the un-ranking last year look pretty light.
He really looks the part of a front-of-the-rotation big-league pitcher -- 6-5, 200 pounds, wiry-strong with room to fill out. He's still working out a few kinks on the mound, but the present package is promising. He'll reach 93 with his fastball and sit 90-91, but can add and subtract with it, and gets good life and tail on the pitch. He has a sharp out-pitch curveball with great depth; it looks harder than 74-77 mph, but that is its velocity, buoyed by the tight rotation Tillman gets on the pitch. His changeup has good tumble, but he doesn't have great feel for it, and overall his command is below average.
If he improves his ability to locate the fastball and adds velocity as he fills out, he's a potential No. 2 starter, at least.
41 Jordan Walden RHP Los Angeles Angels
Walden spent the whole year in full-season ball, finishing in a tough park in the Cal League. He established himself as the Angels' top prospect in a year when the system had some disappointments.
Walden's bread and butter is a bowling ball -- he throws a low-to-mid-90s fastball, with tremendous sink, and he'll mix in a four-seamer at 97 when he needs or wants to go up in the zone. He throws mostly fastballs, but does flash an above-average slider that projects as a swing-and-miss pitch when he needs it, but with good ground ball rates and plus control he hasn't reached that point. At worst, he's a mid-rotation innings-eater because he can get ground balls, but he has a chance to become a Brandon Webb-type at the top of the rotation if he continues to improve.
42 Jordan Zimmermann RHP Washington Nationals
Zimmermann spent most of his first full pro season in Double-A, good for any recent draftee but even more so for a pitcher out of a Division III school, as he is. He's not a potential ace but a very high-probability No. 3 with a chance to be better than that because of his plus command.
Zimmermann is a classic four-pitch pitcher who changes speeds well and commands his stuff, locating his 90-94 mph four-seamer to all parts of the zone. He also keeps the ball down. His best pitch remains his mid-80s slider, short and tight with good tilt, although his curve is tighter now than it was when he was an amateur. Plus, he turns his changeup over well.
He has good feel for pitching, above-average command and average control.
43 Brett Cecil LHP Toronto Blue Jays
Cecil was a dominant closer at the University of Maryland, but the Blue Jays saw his three-pitch mix and starter's build and moved him to the rotation, with outstanding results so far. Cecil reached Triple-A in his first pro season after having little trouble dispatching high-A and Double-A hitters.
He's a four-pitch pitcher with at least two above-average offerings in his boring low-90s fastball and a knockout, late-diving 83-86 mph slider. His curve is solid-average with good depth, while his changeup (the newest of his offerings) has made progress and projects as average, although right now he's better off mixing up his breaking balls to get right-handers out.
His biggest obstacle remains workload, as the Jays continue to build his arm strength to transition him from relief to starting, and his slightly long arm action may not hold up over the long term. If it does, he's a potential No. 2 starter and should be in the Jays' rotation by Labor Day.
44 Mike Moustakas 3B Kansas City Royals
Moustakas had an odd year, to say the least: He spent the first half of the season as an awful defensive shortstop who couldn't hit a lick (but was young for his league), and the second half as an offensive machine who was sort of passable at third base.
Moustakas has a great swing, a smooth left-hander's stroke with good plate coverage and hard line-drive contact. He has intermittent power; his swing doesn't have great loft, and he needs to get his arms extended to really drive the ball, but it is in there when he gets the opportunity to use it. Physically, Moustakas offers no projection; he's 6-0, around 200 pounds or slightly more, and already thickset, with below-average speed.
He was never going to stay at short, and he may not stay at third, where he was improved but still has a lot of work to do on reading balls and improving reaction times. It has been said before, by me and others, that Moustakas should be behind the plate. He has a 65-70 arm, has a catcher's body, and caught a little bit in high school. The Royals have no catching prospects of note, and any questions about Moustakas' power become irrelevant if he's catching, because his bat will be plus back there at 15 homers a year or 30. As a catcher, he'd be top 20-25 overall.
45 Alcides Escobar SS Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee's Double-A Huntsville team had several hitting prospects who put up absurd numbers in what has historically been a neutral park, even though they don't project as stars in the big leagues. Escobar is the most gifted of the group, with two others appearing further down the list.
He has excellent bat speed as well as foot speed, going home to first in 4.0-4.1 seconds, although I've seen him dog it at 4.36 seconds (which would still be a good run time for a lot of hitters). He makes solid contact, especially on fastballs, and showed a little more power this year, although he's not likely to ever be more than fringe-average in that department.
Beyond his speed, his main calling card is plus-plus defense; he has good range and reads the ball well off the bat, and his athleticism translates into quick movements and turns in the field. Aside from the lack of power, his main flaw is a lack of patience and pitch recognition; although his walk rate nearly doubled this year, it's still poor, and he relies more on plate coverage than plate discipline, which will limit his ability to help a team at the top of a lineup. His bat speed allows him to make up for some of these deficiencies, but he'll have to hit .300 to be an offensive asset in the majors.
46 Austin Jackson CF New York Yankees
Jackson's star has dimmed over the past year or so, as an expected breakout hasn't come. He's shown that he takes a while to adjust to each new level or challenge. He's still a great athlete, but it's not translating into baseball skills as quickly as hoped.
Jackson's tools grade out as more or less average across the board, with nothing standing out as plus except for the possibility that he'll become an above-average hitter (for average, that is). He had good speed but is, at best, a 55 runner now, although he has good instincts on the bases. He has gap power and can jerk a ball over the fence to left, but doesn't project as more than a 15-20 homer guy unless he fills out substantially.
He's solid in center field with a good arm, but probably isn't a Gold Glove candidate. Because he lacks a major weakness, he's still a valuable prospect, and he'll play all of 2009 at age 22, so he has room for growth. It's just hard to see the ceiling that appeared to be there a year or two ago.
47 Jeremy Hellickson RHP Tampa Bay Rays
Hellickson needed to improve one of his offspeed pitches to raise his ceiling beyond that of a No. 4 or No. 5 starter, and he did, as his changeup was significantly better this year. He tightened his curveball as well. Hellickson has always had good fastball command and his control, always above-average, is now plus-plus: He issued just 19 unintentional walks in 152 innings this year while striking out 162.
His fastball is solid average, touching 94 but sitting 91-92, and he's using a cut fastball to keep hitters off of the straight four-seamer, but he remains homer-prone and probably always will be because of the combination of average velocity and little movement on the heater.
A pitcher needs to do two of three things to be successful in the majors: miss bats, avoid walks and keep the ball in the park. Hellickson looks like he'll be able to do the first two, so even if he ends up a 30-plus homer per year pitcher, he'll be valuable.
48 Jason Donald SS Philadelphia Phillies
Donald has no star potential, but he's major-league ready and could be a solid-average shortstop in 2009 if he had the opportunity.
He's a line-drive hitter who uses the whole field well and has good patience, although he can open up a little early and get on top of the ball or swing over it entirely. He has a little loft in his swing but will probably max out around 15-20 homers barring a major increase in strength. His arm is average for short, he gets good reads on ground balls, and is very good on the double play both as a shortstop and on the pivot as a second baseman.
The Phillies' system has players with more upside, like Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor, but Donald's ability to play in the majors right now makes him a valuable property, both to the Phillies if they ask him to fill in for Chase Utley and to other clubs if the Phillies decide to trade him.
49 Jeremy Jeffress RHP Milwaukee Brewers
Jeffress seems to have finally decided that baseball is indeed important, although a holdover a drug suspension from '07 limited him to 19 regular-season starts in 2008.
Jeffress has been clocked as high as 99 even late in starts; early in the Arizona Fall League he was sitting 92-96 and touched 98, with outstanding downhill plane on the pitch that should help him generate some ground balls. His secondary stuff remains below-average; he'll flash an 11-5 curveball with tight rotation, then will throw four that are softer and slower, maybe hanging one along the way.
He has good arm speed on his changeup, but the pitch lacks action. Jeffress' arm is, as you might imagine, very quick through his delivery, but he slows himself down slightly as he drifts off the rubber, finishing with a good long stride to maximize his velocity and bring his release point closer to the hitter.
He left the AFL early for precautionary reasons after suffering from a "tired arm" and dropping to 89-90 in his final outing, but if he's healthy and can stay out of trouble for a full year, he has a chance to be in the top 20 next January.
50 Daryl Jones OF St. Louis Cardinals
Jones is an incredible athlete who has developed rather quickly into a very good, if not outstanding, prospect.
He was -- to be kind -- atrocious in 2007, hitting just .217/.304/.296 in the Midwest League, then had offseason LASIK surgery and started to see the ball better, making more contact and showing better pitch recognition. He even carried his success forward to Double-A after a late-season promotion. Jones' only below-average tool is his arm; he's a plus runner, covers a lot of ground in center, has a good swing and shows line-drive power now with the promise of more to come.
He still has some mechanical kinks to work out in his swing -- in particular, he tends to glide and often leaves his hands far enough back that he starts to bar his front arm. His youth, his athleticism and his relative lack of baseball experience give him more chance to improve than most Double-A prospects have.
This is the first 50. Unfortunately, copy and paste didn't work so well, so I apologize if the format is all screwed up. I went through and deleted a bunch of the unnecessary stuff like player age and highest level reached in minors, as those were space wasters and made it more difficult to read. It might be jumbled in some places, but it should be readable.
RANK NAME POSITION ORGANIZATION
1 Matt Wieters C Baltimore Orioles
Wieters is typically compared to one of two current big-leaguers: Mark Teixeira and Joe Mauer. Those are tough comps to hang on a player who has yet to sniff the big leagues, but in Wieters' case, they're merited.
Wieters' similarities to Teixeira don't end with their common alma mater of Georgia Tech or the fact that each was selected with the fifth overall pick (Teixeira in 2001, Wieters in 2007). Like Teixeira, Wieters is a switch-hitter with plus hit and power tools from both sides. He's a little more fluid from the left side with slightly better raw power, but he could stand on his head and still be short to the ball and get good extension on his follow-through. His plate discipline is strong and improving, and he's filled out since college, adding power to the point where he's at least major league average right now. He does glide a little bit on both sides, but it has no discernible effect on his ability to hit.
Like Mauer, Wieters is an offensive catcher with a plus arm who makes everything he does look easy. He's consistently around 1.9 seconds from home to second - I've never gotten anything over 1.96 from him - and his receiving skills have improved dramatically since he entered Baltimore's system. And like Mauer, Wieters is big for the position; he's not as thick as Mauer, who was a high school football star, but he's 6-5 with long limbs and is, like all tall catchers, at risk for knee trouble over the very long term. If he has to spend the last half of his career at another position, his bat will play anywhere on the diamond.
Wieters could start 2009 in the majors, although giving him a one-month stint in Triple-A would give Baltimore the advantage of another year of control before Wieters hits free agency. Other than that possibility, there's nothing stopping him from becoming an impact catcher from Day One.
2 David Price LHP Tampa Bay Rays
I would offer to introduce Price, but he seems to have already introduced himself. Price, like Wieters, is ready to play in the majors right now, although he has a little more development ahead of him that may have to come at the big league level.
Price is primarily a two-pitch pitcher today, working at 90-94 mph as a starter but sitting around 94 as a reliever and bumping up to 97. His slider is his out pitch - ask the Red Sox about it - in the low to mid-80s with very good tilt; he can lengthen it against lefties or shorten its break against righties. He does throw a changeup, also in the low 80s, with good action, but it's far enough behind his other two pitches that the Rays had him put it aside for his September callup. He'll need to continue to develop that pitch and improve his fastball command to reach his ceiling as a No. 1 starter, and his workload may be somewhat limited since he threw only140 innings in total in 2008 (including Triple-A and postseason action with the Rays). Given more development time, whether in Durham or in St. Petersburg, he will become a workhorse at the top of the Rays' rotation who racks up strikeouts and shuts down hitters on both sides of the plate.
3 Jason Heyward RF Atlanta Braves
The first round of the 2007 draft looks like it's going to turn out a half-dozen stars or well above-average big leaguers, if not more, with Heyward at the top of the list of its high school products. Even at age 17, Heyward was a physical specimen, already 6-4 and well-built with room to add muscle as he gets older. He controls the strike zone well, both laying off pitches out of the zone and working himself into hitters' counts; his contact rate was one of the best in the South Atlantic League this year despite his relative youth. He gets his arms extended well, setting up slightly away from his body, so the ball down or over the outer half is well within his reach. Atlanta has moved him from center to right field; he has a plus arm and above-average range now that he's out of the middle of the field. His upside is just a question of power; he's going to hit for average and be an asset in the field. His swing and body point to 30-plus homers a year, which, coupled with a healthy on-base percentage and defensive value, would make him one of the most valuable players in the game.
4 Neftali Feliz RHP Texas Rangers
Feliz was something of a known quantity last offseason, having come over to Texas in the Mark Teixeira trade, but he was just a very live arm with no full-season experience and only 72 pro innings in total. He started 2008 by obliterating Midwest League hitters and continued to miss bats after a two-level jump to Double-A. Coming from a low 3/4 slot, Feliz has some of the easiest velocity you will ever see, mostly 94-97 mph but dialing up and down a little as needed. He turns his changeup over well, especially considering his arm slot, and gets good fading action on it, so it's not surprising that his strikeout rate against left-handed hitters was 28 percent higher than it was against right-handed hitters. His slider is still inconsistent; it's short, a good sign for someone who has a little bit of sling in his delivery, but the pitch can back up on him. He'll have to return to Double-A this year and refine his command and control, since he can't just blow it by hitters as he did in low A, but he could also show up in the majors at some point in 2009 depending on his own progress and the Rangers' place in the standings.
5 Travis Snider OF Toronto Blue Jays
Snider was rushed to the majors this year, but to some degree it's his own fault, as he never stumbled after any of his previous promotions and continued to hit in the majors despite a big drop in his contact rate. Snider is a fair athlete who should have defensive value -- especially from his arm -- but the bulk of his value will be in his bat. His setup and swing are very simple, and his path to the ball is short, so he should be able to hit for a good average even if he's striking out 140 times a year, and he's already showing good power and projects as plus down the road. He looks a little stiff, but is an average runner and more than adequate in right field, with a 60 arm. Putting him directly into Toronto's lineup this year is probably too aggressive -- he was the youngest position player to get a major league at bat in 2008 -- but he should be a big league regular by Opening Day 2010 and an impact player two or three years after that.
6 Madison Bumgarner LHP San Francisco Giants
A year ago, Bumgarner was a live arm, a projectable body, and a name to file away for the future. He only started throwing breaking balls late in his high school career, and the rudimentary secondary stuff plus his low arm slot had scouts -- including me -- assuming he was a long way away from the majors. His slider made enormous strides in his first full year in pro ball, and his changeup is now solid-average, no small feat for a pitcher who throws from a low 3/4 slot. He's unusual for pitchers of his ilk in that his arm action is fairly short and compact; many pitchers who throw from below 3/4 get long in the back, almost slinging the ball, and have trouble turning over a changeup or staying on top of breaking balls as a result. His command and control are both above-average, and he was aggressive in going after South Atlantic League hitters, who stood little chance against him. The Giants were careful with Bumgarner in 2008, but there's a good chance he finishes this year in Double-A and shows up in the majors at some point in 2010.
7 Lars Anderson 1B Boston Red Sox
Anderson is the best of a fairly deep class of first base prospects in the minors right now, separating himself by his relative youth and advanced approach. Anderson has outstanding plate discipline for a prospect his age - or any age, really, but his relative youth makes it much more impressive. His career OBP sits at .404, and you can see a cerebral approach to the strike zone. As a hitter, Anderson has a high setup and makes a big, quick first move down to get into hitting position; once he gets started, he's very short to the ball and makes a lot of hard contact with good backspin. He has the swing and physical potential to hit 30-plus home runs, but is still working out which pitches to pull and which pitches to take to the opposite field. He's adequate at first base despite being a well below-average runner. Despite the fact that he finished 2008 with a strong performance in Double-A, Anderson is a few years away from becoming an impact big-league hitter with both a high OBP and big power, but he has the complete package and only requires development time to get there.
8 Buster Posey C San Francisco Giants
Posey presents a very balanced set of tools that, given his position, make him among the most valuable properties in the minor leagues. A recent convert from shortstop who also pitched a little in college, Posey is a plus defensive catcher with a plus arm (he pitched in the low 90s), soft hands, and a lot of energy at a position that demands it. At the plate, he has a compact stroke, excellent bat control, and a good eye, so while he doesn't project to hit for more than average power, he should make plenty of hard contact and end up a doubles hitter with 15-20 home runs per year. The combination of a projected plus hit tool and currently plus defense make him a very high-probability prospect -- he plays in the big leagues no matter what, be it as a quality backup if he never improves at all or as a star everyday catcher if he reaches his offensive ceiling.
9 Tommy Hanson RHP Atlanta Braves
Hanson made the top 100 last year as a bit of a sleeper whose upside made him worthy of the relatively high ranking, but in 2008 he cemented his status as one of the top pitching prospects in the game. Hanson projects as a potential No. 1 starter, with a four-pitch arsenal headlined by a 92-95 mph fastball and a plus curveball with great depth. He's 6-6 and gets good angle on his pitches, thanks in part to the work of the late Myrtle Beach pitching coach, Bruce Dal Canton, in keeping him over the rubber. He still has room to fill out physically and perhaps add a little velocity, and adding a slider last year gave him yet another weapon to miss bats. Hanson has a few areas for improvement -- his changeup is below average, so he doesn't have a real out pitch against lefties; his command and control are both below average, although he can just overpower minor league hitters, which keeps him below the top 10. He's probably less than a year from contributing in the majors.
10 Rick Porcello RHP Detroit Tigers
The Tigers, typically aggressive with their top prospects, started the 18-year-old Porcello in high-A this year, one of only two high school arms from the 2007 draft to do so (the other -- San Francisco's Tim Alderson -- is also on this list). He responded, but not in the way you might have expected. Porcello can dial it up to the mid-90s, but has settled in as a low-90s; he's a strike-throwing, ground-ball-generating machine, throwing two-seamer after two-seamer and not having to rely on the sharp curveball he used in high school. He doesn't miss a lot of bats with the new approach, but generating ground balls keeps the pitch count down, and pitchers who throw strikes and don't give up home runs can be very successful. But bear in mind that Porcello has the raw stuff to be more of a strikeout pitcher, and when he reaches the majors, he could blend the two approaches and be one of the top pitchers in the game.
11 Tim Beckham SS Tampa Bay Rays
The first pick and best overall prospect in the 2008 draft, Tim Beckham was mildly disappointing in his first taste of pro ball, although there were no major red flags. Beckham has average or better tools across the board, with the potential to be plus in every tool if his power develops fully. He was better on defense than at the plate last summer; he's athletic and fast with an above-average arm, but his footwork needs improvement. At the plate, he has some mechanical issues to work through as he transitions to the wood bat, including a deep setup and slight wrap. He has very quick wrists and uses the whole field well, so the changes he needs to make are incremental and not drastic. He did make plenty of contact in the Appalachian League, especially considering his age, but he'll need to improve his patience and find a way to get his bat to the ball a little sooner to reach his full potential.
12 Colby Rasmus CF St. Louis Cardinals
Don't hurt yourselves jumping off the Colby Rasmus bandwagon, OK? Rasmus played his entire injury-plagued 2008 season in Triple-A at age 21, and by the time he made a few adjustments and started hitting, he hit the disabled list twice and played just five more games before the season ended. (After an 0-for-22 stretch in mid-May, Rasmus hit .336/.444/.517 over 171 plate appearances until he hurt his groin on July 1.) The scouting report on Rasmus hasn't changed: He still has quick hands and gets the bat to the ball quickly, projects to have plus power, is an above-average runner, plays a solid center field, has the arm to play right, and shows a generally advanced feel for the game given his age. He also has a history of good plate discipline and solid contact rates. So, please, before you send him off in endless trade proposals, remind me again what's not to like here?
13 Carlos Santana C Cleveland Indians
In 2007, Santana hit .223/.318/.370 in the Midwest League, didn't make Baseball Prospectus' list of the top 11 Dodgers prospects, and didn't crack the top 20 on Baseball America's list. Now, after hitting a combined .330/.435/.569 in high-A -- walking more than he struck out -- he projects as a middle-of-the-order, switch-hitting run producer who, by the way, is a legitimate big league catcher. Santana has a very compact swing and makes a lot of hard contact, but he also has enough strength in his upper body to generate power despite the short swing. Behind the plate, he's a good receiver and has an above-average arm, but needs to work on his game-calling. Given his tremendous control of the strike zone and above-average power, he has very little to do to turn into an average big league catcher, but there's a high probability that he develops into much more.
14 Josh Vitters 3B Chicago Cubs
Vitters started the year slow due to a hand injury, ended up returning to short-season ball, and hit everything in sight. He has an easy, smooth, quick swing that would be that classic "sweet" left-hander's swing if it wasn't for the fact that he hits right-handed. He doesn't have great loft in his swing, but is strong and makes extremely hard contact; he led the Northwest League in doubles at age 19 and as he fills out a little bit, some of those will go over (or through) the wall. He's fringe-average at third base; he has plenty of arm and his footwork is improving, although he's not likely to ever be plus over there. If there's a concern, it's the very low walk total; he's not a hacker or even impatient, but is very aggressive, and that works as long as he's ahead of the pitchers and can make so much solid contact. If his patience doesn't improve and he doesn't continue to hit .320-plus, his ceiling will start to drop. If the patience comes, he's a potential No. 3 hitter who'll hit plenty of doubles and 25-plus home runs with a high average.
15 Justin Smoak 1B Texas Rangers
Smoak signed on Aug. 15 -- deadline day -- and had just 56 at-bats in the regular season. But once he started hitting, he didn't stop 'til mid-November. In 124 total plate appearances between the Midwest and Arizona Fall Leagues, he hit .327/.411/.551 with five homers. Smoak is often compared to Mark Teixeira, and there's some logic to it, as both are switch-hitting first basemen with big power and plus gloves. I think of Smoak as more of a switch-hitting Adrian Gonzalez -- he doesn't have quite the same raw power as Teixeira, but has a very disciplined approach at the plate and does have a plus glove at first. Smoak is legit from both sides of the plate, centering the ball extremely well and showing power both to pull and to the opposite field. His path to the ball is short and he sets up almost loaded, with a short move backwards serving as his trigger. His only flaw as a player is his complete lack of speed, which limits him to first base, but he's an excellent fielder there his bat would play anywhere on the diamond.
16 Fernando Martinez OF New York Mets
Martinez's big issue is staying healthy; he has yet to reach 400 plate appearances or play in 100 games during any of his pro seasons, excluding winter ball. This is a shame, because Martinez has a special bat and the injuries plus some aggressive promotions have obscured it. Martinez offers huge power potential, putting on a display in BP, but it has only briefly started to emerge in games. He has very quick and strong wrists, letting the ball travel on him before exploding quickly and making solid, hard contact. In the field, he's looking more likely to end up in right field; the Mets have one of the game's best center fielders in the big leagues and don't need to groom Martinez for that position. His pitch recognition, while good for his age, hasn't progressed over the last two years, and the more he's pushed up the system the less likely it is that the skill will develop. Martinez has now played the equivalent of a full season in Double-A before his 20th birthday, and the Mets are faced with the difficult decision of whether to promote him to Triple-A because he has "graduated" from the lower level or return him to the Eastern League for the third consecutive year so he can work on his plate discipline and, maybe, catch his breath.
17 Eric Hosmer 1B Kansas City Royals
Hosmer had just gotten his feet wet in pro ball after signing late last summer when the Pirates decided to drag him into their argument with Scott Boras and Pedro Alvarez, costing him a handful of at bats at the end of the Pioneer League's season; fortunately, he's talented enough to overcome the loss of a little development time. Hosmer was the top high school bat in the 2008 Rule 4 draft; he has quick wrists and shows big raw power, especially on any pitch that allows him to get his arms extended. Like a lot of left-handed power hitters, he doesn't like the ball in on his hands, but the hole is small and he can make a pitcher pay for a mistake that catches a little too much plate. Hosmer was also a decent pitching prospect in high school, touching 94 mph, so he has the arm to play right field and is probably enough of an athlete to handle it as well; at worst, he's a plus defender at first. He should be in the middle of Kansas City's lineup in three or four years.
18 Andrew McCutchen CF Pittsburgh Pirates
Andrew McCutchen has been rushed. Repeat after me: He … has … been … rushed. This isn't a criticism of the current regime in Pittsburgh, as the rushing all took place before Neal Huntington could even get a catalog to pick out new drapes for his office, but they inherited a player who had arrived in Triple-A before his 21st birthday despite posting a .710 OPS in Double-A, a level he reached after the Pirates skipped him right past high-A. He's been rushed, I say. The good thing is that he has survived this hazing and even performed well in several areas, notably his plate discipline. McCutchen has strong wrists and forearms and makes hard contact, but doesn't get his lower half involved at all and thus hasn't hit for the kind of power he's capable of producing. He has great bat speed and has hit for average while making plenty of contact. He's a 65-70 runner but had an uncharacteristically sloppy year as a base stealer; he's a plus glove in center but could use a little work on routes. The power should come -- he's too young for us to assume that it won't -- and the new regime in Pittsburgh has a much better player-development protocol in place.
19 Brett Wallace 3B St. Louis Cardinals
Wallace was the best pure hitter in this year's draft, but fell to the Cardinals due to questions about his ultimate position. He's playing third base right now, and the Cardinals intend to keep him there until he plays himself off it; he has plenty of arm and is fine on balls in front of him, but lacks lateral range … severely. Still, his bat is so special that if he can improve to just a win below average at third, he'll be a star. He makes hitting look easy -- he hits lefties (.387/.479/.484 in 62 at bats last year) and righties, all pitches, all areas of the zone, whatever's thrown at him -- and has pull power to right and doubles power the other way. Sure, his body type is unusual for a pro baseball player -- he has enormous thighs, but it's muscle, not fat, and emphasizing that only detracts attention from what really matters: Brett Wallace will hit.
20 Brett Anderson LHP Oakland A's
Anderson took a huge step forward this year, both in terms of his stuff and in his track record when he showed he could succeed both in the tough California League and in a short stint in Double-A. Anderson is a command left-hander with an out-pitch curveball and an average changeup that projects as plus. The curve has a very sharp, almost spiking two-plane break; he maintains good arm speed on the changeup and it runs late towards his arm side. His main weakness was always his fastball, but his velocity has been improving and he's now solid-average as a starter. He showed in the Futures Game that he can bump it up to 94 or so in a short stint. He commands all of his pitches, can pitch to both sides with his fastball, and releases the ball late to get a little advantage on the hitter. His arm action is a little long, and he comes a little across his body; other than that quibble, he looks like a very solid mid-rotation starter with a chance to be a two or even a one.
21 Derek Holland LHP Texas Rangers
Holland's isn't the biggest jump on to the list this year, but it might be the most surprising. Texas wasn't on Holland when he was in junior college until they saw him at the NJCAA World Series a few weeks before the 2006 draft, and they took a flier on him in the 25th round as a draft and follow. His velocity has since increased; he was 88-91 mph the following spring, then was 90-93 in the summer of '07 in Spokane. By the middle of 2008, he was already in Double-A, sitting 93-95 and touching 98, with natural bore and cut to the pitch and uncanny command. His changeup is already an above-average pitch, and he held right-handed hitters to a .215/.268/.305 line across three levels this year. His slider is still a work in progress, but it's improving, and he has enough command and deception to get left-handed hitters out in the minors. He doesn't have the raw upside of Feliz, but he's not far behind him in potential and is ahead of him in command and feel for pitching, and is the most likely of Texas' horde (pun intended) of pitching prospects to contribute to the big club in 2009.
22 Carlos Triunfel 2B/SS Seattle Mariners
Triunfel opened a lot of eyes in the Arizona Fall League as the circuit's youngest player, showing tremendous natural aptitude for hitting and more than adequate fielding at second base. Triunfel sets up with his hands high, and they're so quick that he closes to the ball in no time, hitting line drives to all fields but rarely trying to pull the ball out, even though he probably could at the cost of some contact. Triunfel's performance this year was more impressive than it looks at first glance. For one thing, he started the year 3-for-39, then hit .307/.355/.433 the rest of the way, a period that included a suspension for violating team rules and a 3-for-46 stretch in June. For another, he was 18 in high-A, a level generally populated by players in their early 20s, and not only did he perform well, but he rarely struck out, a good sign that he was rarely (if ever) overmatched. He's an above-average runner and a good base stealer. He's a natural shortstop but played second in the Fall League, showing good hands and a good transfer on the double play.
There are some concerns on Triunfel. The suspension is one, his age is another. His listed date of birth is Feb. 27, 1990, which would mean he'll play all of 2009 at age 19, but as a Dominican prospect who's already put together physically, some have questioned his age. If he's really about to turn 21, he's still a good prospect, but not a potential star. There's no firm evidence to back up the questions, though, so for now, we'll assume he's going to turn 19 and is still on track for stardom.
23 Logan Morrison 1B Florida Marlins
Morrison is strong, very strong, with plus raw power already; when he squares up, the ball absolutely flies off his bat. He's a tick below Anderson because of the latter's patience, but Morrison has more raw power. Morrison does have a pretty advanced approach at the plate himself, and his 2008 numbers were depressed by the pitcher-friendly environment of the Florida State League. Morrison does have some mechanical issues that keep his swing inconsistent; he's on his front foot a little early, and he tends to get under the ball, but the fact that he can hit as well as he does despite not squaring the ball up as often as some other prospects is testament to his strength. Florida's first base job is open -- you could argue it's been open for at least a year -- but whoever fills it in 2009 may miss a few throws because he's too busy looking over his shoulder.
24 Trevor Cahill RHP Oakland A's
Cahill's two-seam fastball is just toxic. He sits in the low 90s but has ridiculous sink on the pitch -- a hard, late, diving action that has led to protests outside his home stadium by People for the Ethical Treatment of Worms. Hitters who can't hit it swing right over it; the only solution is to try to lay off it and hope that he's forced to elevate the pitch or go to one of his secondary pitches, none of which can measure up to the Nastygram. Cahill's best offspeed offering is his spike curveball, which is inconsistent but at times has a sharp downward bite; it's a notoriously tough pitch to command, although the fact that he can snap off a good one is a good sign that he could throw a pretty effective "regular" curveball if the A's feel he'll never quite command the spike. His slider is slurvy and he doesn't have great feel for it or for his changeup, which is more of a show-me pitch right now. His season ended early when he strained his rib cage at the Olympics, and the A's wisely shut him down. He has more upside than system-mate Brett Anderson, but lacks Anderson's command and assortment of quality secondary stuff, meaning he has more development ahead of him before he can be a top- or near-top-of-the-rotation starter.
25 Desmond Jennings OF Tampa Bay Rays
Jennings missed two months with back trouble to start the year, then hurt his non-throwing shoulder while rehabbing the back. He tried to play through the shoulder injury, but lasted just 102 plate appearances in 2008 before surgery ended his regular season, although he came back to play on the Peoria Javelinas' taxi squad in the Arizona Fall League. The lost year of development hurts, but Jennings remains a top prospect due to his tool set and tremendous feel for the game. Jennings is a great athlete, a plus-plus runner who's well-built and has a compact stroke geared toward contact. He is strong enough and should be big enough to hit 20-25 homers a year (if not more), but his power hasn't shown up in games yet, and it's not likely to do so until he's 100 percent physically. He also has outstanding baseball instincts in the field, on the bases, and even at the plate, where he shows good pitch recognition. He gets a mulligan on his '08 stats because he was never fully healthy, and gets knocked down a peg here because of the potential for recurrent back trouble down the road, but he still has star potential as a center fielder who can hit and adds value on the bases.
26 Tim Alderson RHP San Francisco Giants
Alderson was one of only two high school pitchers from the 2007 draft to start the year in high-A -- Rick Porcello was the other -- and he had the added challenge of pitching in the hitter-friendly California League, although San Jose is itself a pitcher's park within that circuit. He spent the entire year there at age 19 and was outstanding, ending the season on a six-start run where he walked one batter over 37 innings while fanning 28.
He sits with a solid-average fastball at 90-94 mph with the promise of more velocity in the future, and his hard curveball is already plus, with tight rotation and a late two-plane break. With Bumgarner making so much progress with his secondary stuff, he's passed Alderson for a couple of reasons. One is Alderson's funky delivery; he lands on a slightly stiff front leg, and to get the ball to his glove side, he ends up throwing across his body due to a low arm slot. His changeup really hasn't progressed through one year in pro ball, leaving him vulnerable to lefties.
The delivery works, so the Giants aren't likely to alter it; if the changeup improves at all with use, his plus-plus command and out-pitch breaking ball give him the upside of a No. 2 or 3 starter.
27 Matt LaPorta 1B Cleveland Indians
LaPorta is what he is (or what you thought he was, if you thought about him at all before this sentence): a slow, patient slugger, stuck at first base, whose power and on-base skills will make him a productive middle-of-the-order hitter and who is ready for the majors now.
LaPorta's power is prodigious, and he gets very good extension through the ball; he's strong enough to power the ball out the other way but can get too pull-conscious. His swing is a little long, but he hasn't had trouble making contact through Double-A, fanning in just 19 percent of his plate appearances in pro ball.
To the extent that he continues that, he can be more than just a three-true-outcomes player and would elevate himself from "above-average regular" to "potential star."
28 Brian Matusz LHP Baltimore Orioles
Though Matusz's only pro experience to date came in the Arizona Fall League because he signed late, he's the type of pitcher who can move very quickly through the minors because of his plus secondary stuff, the likes of which many A-ball hitters only see in nightmares.
Matusz throws the kitchen sink at hitters, and none of his pitches is below-average. His fastball sits in the low 90s and touches 94; it's straight, but he'll cut it in the upper 80s for a different look. He throws and commands an 11/5 (1/7 if you prefer, since he's left-handed) curveball with very tight rotation; it breaks downward very late, so a left-handed hitter thinks it's going to be inside only to find himself directed benchward after a called third strike. He has excellent arm speed on his changeup and the pitch has both tumble and fading action.
So why isn't Matusz higher on this list? One reason is the lack of pro experience, which means we have very little idea of his timetable beyond projecting his stuff. The other is his fastball; the velocity is fine, but it's straight, and he has to spot it well or rely more heavily on his secondary stuff, an approach that can work but has some drawbacks, like the increased stress on an elbow from throwing a lot of breaking balls.
His arm action is short and he keeps his pitching elbow low, and the Orioles have cleaned him up -- keeping him more upright through his delivery -- since he signed, so I'm optimistic that he can handle a lifetime of pitching a little bit backwards and develop into a No. 1 or 2 starter.
29 Cameron Maybin OF Florida Marlins
Maybin still has huge upside and youth on his side, but his problems making contact aren't going away with experience, even after Florida slowed him down and let him spend an entire year at one level.
Maybin has plus raw power, and when he makes contact the ball takes off. The problem is with the frequency of his contact: He has a long and inconsistent swing with a tendency to glide, and struck out in 27 percent of his plate appearances in Double-A an increase from his rate in 2007. He hit a robust .375 on balls in play in Double-A, but only .277 overall.
When Maybin gets a fastball or mediocre offspeed pitch, he's dangerous. But he can be beaten with better offspeed stuff or by a pitcher who can expand the zone on him. These aren't uncommon problems, but for Maybin, they're not dissipating over time.
He may turn out to be more of a Mike Cameron type of player: low average and contact rates, but power, speed and plus defense, with a better arm than Cameron's. Cameron has been a good and valuable (if underappreciated) player for a decade now, so that's a good outcome for Maybin, but if his pitch recognition improves -- which is still possible since he turns 22 in April -- he has the potential to be much more.
30 Dexter Fowler CF Colorado Rockies
Fowler was one of the top players to just miss my list last year due to concerns about his swing. He has always been a plus defender in center with good speed. He showed patience as soon as he reached pro ball, but he had swing issues from both sides of the plate; it's not surprising that he had issues from the left side, since he's only been switch-hitting since instructional league in 2004, but he was leaking badly as a right-handed hitter as well.
The Rockies have done a great job cleaning up both swings -- he keeps his weight back much better now than he did as recently as late 2007, and he does a better job keeping his hands inside the ball when he's hitting left-handed. He's still obviously more comfortable hitting right-handed, but the improvement on both sides is a great sign, and he shows above-average power from the left side when he gets his arms extended on balls out over the plate.
Fowler's a plus runner -- albeit a below-average base stealer -- and covers a lot of ground in center. He gets good marks for makeup and work ethic, and given the strides he's already made, there's reason to expect further improvement.
31 Mike Stanton OF Florida Marlins
Stanton's raw power is probably the best in the minors -- comfortably a 70 on the 20-80 scale, and that's present power, not future. Stanton was a mess as a high school hitter, but Florida's coaching staff overhauled his swing in his first instructional league after the 2007 season, and the results have been … well, stunning.
Stanton hit 39 homers as a true 18-year-old in the Sally league, and he improved as he went along: He had 10 home runs at the end of May, and then hit 29 the rest of the way over 333 plate appearances, a rate of 52 homers per 600 PA (roughly a full major-league season).
Stanton is a big kid with long limbs, and his swing does get very long, leading to a lot of strikeouts and a reasonable expectation that he's going to be a three-true-outcomes hitter (walks, strikeouts and home runs). He's played some center, but he's going to end up in a corner, probably right field but possibly first base. As long as he continues to make enough contact, the power will carry him to the majors.
32 Jose Tabata OF Pittsburgh Pirates
Your guess is as good as mine at this point. Tabata can hit, and for most of his pro career, he has hit, with a career .296/.366/.401 line up through Double-A. Almost all came before his 20th birthday. But Tabata took the first few months of 2008 off, at least mentally; he showed up at the ballpark, but his attitude was horrible -- failing to run out ground balls, not working at-bats and earning a suspension for throwing a tantrum on the field after a call went against him.
I'm sure Yankee fans who saw him play or followed his 0-fers in the box scores were absolutely galled to see him go to the Pirates and turn the jets back on, as he hit .348/.402/.562 with 11 extra-base hits (he had just 12 in four months with the Yankees) and eight stolen bases in just 22 games. That's the Jose Tabata who was in my top 10 two years ago: a teenager who showed he could hit against older competition in full-season ball.
When Tabata feels like it, he can hit. He has outstanding hand-eye coordination and recognizes pitches well, so he squares balls up well and doesn't swing and miss that often. (Even during his off year in Trenton this past season, he only struck out in 15 percent of his plate appearances.) He has above-average power, but it hasn't shown up in games other than his tiny sample with Altoona. He can run, and does it well, going 18-for-20 in steals over all of 2008.
The Pirates have returned him to center field for now, but the presence of Andrew McCutchen makes it unlikely that Tabata will play there in the majors; he has the range and plus arm to be an asset in right. Where he goes from here is up to him. He could end up in the top 10 again next offseason if he plays hard all year in 2009, and he's indicated to Pirates' brass that he realizes he needs to grow up. If not, he'll just keep dropping until he's off the list entirely.
33 Wade Davis RHP Tampa Bay Rays
Davis' stock slipped a little this year with a mid-summer lull where his velocity was down and he changed his own approach, throwing too many two-seamers and ignoring his own destiny as a power pitcher. He did recover the lost velocity and improved his pitch selection in the second half of the season, carrying it through a promotion to Triple-A in July.
Davis sits 92-95 with two good breaking balls, a hard downer curveball and a sharp slider with good tilt in the mid-80s. His changeup has improved but still is below-average, and he has a tendency to pitch around lefties rather than go after them, which could be the result of a lack of confidence in the changeup.
Like a lot of young power guys, his command and control lag behind his stuff, and he wasn't challenged enough at lower levels to have to improve them. A good half-year or more in Triple-A should help, and the Rays are fortunate enough to have the depth to allow Davis to develop on his own schedule.
34 Angel Villalona 1B San Francisco Giants
It may be unfair to drop Villalona this far, given his youth, but we do have more insight now into just how raw of a prospect he is. Villalona played almost all of 2008 at age 17, and was the youngest player in the full-season Sally League, where he showed plenty of power but also demonstrated problems with pitch recognition that aren't going to go away if he's just pushed up the ladder.
Villalona can murder a fastball or any mistake in his hitting zone, but he struggles with anything soft and away and with better off-speed stuff. Once he's behind in the count, he's not coming back. He drew just 15 unintentional walks this year in exactly 500 plate appearances (but was walked intentionally three times, so he was clearly feared). He's not all-or-nothing, as he has a pretty wide hitting zone and can adjust a little bit to some breaking balls.
The Giants have already moved him to first base -- no small task -- and conditioning will always be a concern, as he's thick-bodied already and was not in great shape for spring training in 2008. He would just now be entering his senior spring if he had been born in the U.S., and yet already has a year and a half under his belt in pro ball, so we can't evaluate him by the same standards we might use for other hitters.
The upside is still there and is tremendous -- four- or five-hole hitter, lots of power, probably never a good OBP -- but it's going to take some time.
35 Jarrod Parker RHP Arizona Diamondbacks
Parker continues to look like one of the best picks in the first round of 2007, one that right now appears to have been historically deep in teenaged arms.
Parker has grown since high school, so questions about his height should be gone, as he's a legit 6-foot-1 and has filled out as well. He'll still sit 94-95 and bump 98, but it's the four-pitch mix that sets him apart from other flamethrowers, especially as his changeup has come on -- not a pitch he needed often in high school -- and will even flash above-average. The slider remains his out pitch with hard, late tilt.
He's a great athlete with good feel for pitching given his age and relative inexperience, and he commands all four pitches he throws. His main weakness is that his fastball lacks movement, and he's likely to be a fly ball pitcher headed toward a big-league park that converts fly balls into home runs with alarming regularity.
He heads to the Cal League in 2009, which should be a good test of his fastball command and ability to mix his pitches to avoid having hitters sit on the heat.
36 Gordon Beckham SS Chicago White Sox
Beckham doesn't always do it pretty, but it seems to work for him, as he has incredible instincts, enough that the "ballplayer" label might be more than just a cliché for him.
Beckham's first move at the plate is down and slightly back, a hitch that makes it harder for him to catch up to better fastballs or adjust at the last second to an off-speed pitch, but he manages because of very quick wrists. He also helps himself by cheating a little on his front side.
His natural range at shortstop is a little limited, but good game awareness helps him overcome that, as he positions himself extremely well, and his hands and arm are fine for the position. He could handle second base, but he should be allowed to stay at short until it becomes absolutely necessary to move him.
He's the anti-Alexei Ramirez: Beckham's feel for the game makes his tools play up, and he's much more substance than flash.
37 Martin Perez LHP Texas Rangers
Perez signed with Texas in late 2007 for more thana half-million dollars, and didn't make his pro debut until 2008 when he went to the advanced short-season Northwest League shortly after turning 17. Perez earns a lot of comparisons to another Venezuelan lefty, Johan Santana, as well as physical comparisons to Ron Guidry.
He already has a solid-average fastball and plus curveball with good depth, with excellent command of both pitches, something unusual in a pitcher his age. He's quite thin but has room to fill out and his fastball should end up in the low 90s, if not a little better, while his changeup projects as plus, although it's below-average right now as he lacks feel for it.
Like all shorter pitchers (shorter being a relative term, as Perez is close to 6-feet tall), he has to work to generate downhill plane, but a little more velocity wouldn't hurt either. He won't turn 18 until April 4, so he may be a one-level-per-year guy in the short term, but he has the feel for pitching and the chance for three above-average pitches that would make him shoot up the system.
38 Pedro Alvarez 3B/1B Pittsburgh Pirates
Alvarez needs to consider hiring a publicist, as just about every story about him over the past seven months has been unflattering, from the minor scandal when he and his agent, Scott Boras, called the Pirates out for violating the terms of the CBA and then settled for a $250,000 dollar increase in Alvarez's signing bonus to recent reports that he was out of shape in the Pirates' mini-camp and is already experiencing tendinitis in his knees. Conditioning has always been an issue for Alvarez dating back to his freshman summer with Team USA, and it's the main reason he's likely to end up at first base.
At the plate, Alvarez is strong and has a high-effort swing that produces big power and lots of hard contact, mostly to right and right-center, but he has struggled with left-handers. In general, he didn't make enough contact in the SEC after coming back from a broken hamate (hand) bone. His setup, with an extremely wide base that doesn't give him much chance to adjust to offspeed stuff, isn't helping, but it's fixable. Plus, you can't teach the kind of raw power Alvarez has.
The bonus kerfuffle cost him any chance to play in 2008, even in winter ball, so all we have now are year-old scouting reports and questions about his conditioning and commitment. He could be in the top 10 next year with a full, healthy season in which he addresses concerns about his ability to make contact.
39 Elvis Andrus SS Texas Rangers
Andrus had more than 1,550 plate appearances in full-season leagues before his 20th birthday, and 2008 was his best year yet in a career that's been more about tools and promise than performance. Andrus' only tool that doesn't project as plus is his power, which could end up as average because he makes such hard contact but isn't likely to surpass that.
He does everything else easily: he's got an easy swing, using the whole field and working the count well for someone who doesn't take many walks; he's a plus runner; he has a strong, accurate arm and throws effortlessly; and he's a plus defender at short with a lot of range (something Texas hasn't exactly had over there for a few years) and fast hands.
He's been so young for everywhere he's played that he hasn't had a chance to develop fully as a hitter, but it's a testament to his skill set that he has survived, and even performed well this year in Double-A with a .295 average and .350 OBP. He's penciled in as Texas' starting shortstop this year because of his defense, but if the line for 2009 is an OPS of .700, I'd take the under.
Down the road, once he's old enough to stay up past the seventh inning, he should be a top-of-the-order hitter, hitting for average and getting on base while adding value with his speed.
40 Chris Tillman RHP Baltimore Orioles
Tillman just missed the cut last year -- he would have been in the next five names -- but took a big step forward this year that makes the un-ranking last year look pretty light.
He really looks the part of a front-of-the-rotation big-league pitcher -- 6-5, 200 pounds, wiry-strong with room to fill out. He's still working out a few kinks on the mound, but the present package is promising. He'll reach 93 with his fastball and sit 90-91, but can add and subtract with it, and gets good life and tail on the pitch. He has a sharp out-pitch curveball with great depth; it looks harder than 74-77 mph, but that is its velocity, buoyed by the tight rotation Tillman gets on the pitch. His changeup has good tumble, but he doesn't have great feel for it, and overall his command is below average.
If he improves his ability to locate the fastball and adds velocity as he fills out, he's a potential No. 2 starter, at least.
41 Jordan Walden RHP Los Angeles Angels
Walden spent the whole year in full-season ball, finishing in a tough park in the Cal League. He established himself as the Angels' top prospect in a year when the system had some disappointments.
Walden's bread and butter is a bowling ball -- he throws a low-to-mid-90s fastball, with tremendous sink, and he'll mix in a four-seamer at 97 when he needs or wants to go up in the zone. He throws mostly fastballs, but does flash an above-average slider that projects as a swing-and-miss pitch when he needs it, but with good ground ball rates and plus control he hasn't reached that point. At worst, he's a mid-rotation innings-eater because he can get ground balls, but he has a chance to become a Brandon Webb-type at the top of the rotation if he continues to improve.
42 Jordan Zimmermann RHP Washington Nationals
Zimmermann spent most of his first full pro season in Double-A, good for any recent draftee but even more so for a pitcher out of a Division III school, as he is. He's not a potential ace but a very high-probability No. 3 with a chance to be better than that because of his plus command.
Zimmermann is a classic four-pitch pitcher who changes speeds well and commands his stuff, locating his 90-94 mph four-seamer to all parts of the zone. He also keeps the ball down. His best pitch remains his mid-80s slider, short and tight with good tilt, although his curve is tighter now than it was when he was an amateur. Plus, he turns his changeup over well.
He has good feel for pitching, above-average command and average control.
43 Brett Cecil LHP Toronto Blue Jays
Cecil was a dominant closer at the University of Maryland, but the Blue Jays saw his three-pitch mix and starter's build and moved him to the rotation, with outstanding results so far. Cecil reached Triple-A in his first pro season after having little trouble dispatching high-A and Double-A hitters.
He's a four-pitch pitcher with at least two above-average offerings in his boring low-90s fastball and a knockout, late-diving 83-86 mph slider. His curve is solid-average with good depth, while his changeup (the newest of his offerings) has made progress and projects as average, although right now he's better off mixing up his breaking balls to get right-handers out.
His biggest obstacle remains workload, as the Jays continue to build his arm strength to transition him from relief to starting, and his slightly long arm action may not hold up over the long term. If it does, he's a potential No. 2 starter and should be in the Jays' rotation by Labor Day.
44 Mike Moustakas 3B Kansas City Royals
Moustakas had an odd year, to say the least: He spent the first half of the season as an awful defensive shortstop who couldn't hit a lick (but was young for his league), and the second half as an offensive machine who was sort of passable at third base.
Moustakas has a great swing, a smooth left-hander's stroke with good plate coverage and hard line-drive contact. He has intermittent power; his swing doesn't have great loft, and he needs to get his arms extended to really drive the ball, but it is in there when he gets the opportunity to use it. Physically, Moustakas offers no projection; he's 6-0, around 200 pounds or slightly more, and already thickset, with below-average speed.
He was never going to stay at short, and he may not stay at third, where he was improved but still has a lot of work to do on reading balls and improving reaction times. It has been said before, by me and others, that Moustakas should be behind the plate. He has a 65-70 arm, has a catcher's body, and caught a little bit in high school. The Royals have no catching prospects of note, and any questions about Moustakas' power become irrelevant if he's catching, because his bat will be plus back there at 15 homers a year or 30. As a catcher, he'd be top 20-25 overall.
45 Alcides Escobar SS Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee's Double-A Huntsville team had several hitting prospects who put up absurd numbers in what has historically been a neutral park, even though they don't project as stars in the big leagues. Escobar is the most gifted of the group, with two others appearing further down the list.
He has excellent bat speed as well as foot speed, going home to first in 4.0-4.1 seconds, although I've seen him dog it at 4.36 seconds (which would still be a good run time for a lot of hitters). He makes solid contact, especially on fastballs, and showed a little more power this year, although he's not likely to ever be more than fringe-average in that department.
Beyond his speed, his main calling card is plus-plus defense; he has good range and reads the ball well off the bat, and his athleticism translates into quick movements and turns in the field. Aside from the lack of power, his main flaw is a lack of patience and pitch recognition; although his walk rate nearly doubled this year, it's still poor, and he relies more on plate coverage than plate discipline, which will limit his ability to help a team at the top of a lineup. His bat speed allows him to make up for some of these deficiencies, but he'll have to hit .300 to be an offensive asset in the majors.
46 Austin Jackson CF New York Yankees
Jackson's star has dimmed over the past year or so, as an expected breakout hasn't come. He's shown that he takes a while to adjust to each new level or challenge. He's still a great athlete, but it's not translating into baseball skills as quickly as hoped.
Jackson's tools grade out as more or less average across the board, with nothing standing out as plus except for the possibility that he'll become an above-average hitter (for average, that is). He had good speed but is, at best, a 55 runner now, although he has good instincts on the bases. He has gap power and can jerk a ball over the fence to left, but doesn't project as more than a 15-20 homer guy unless he fills out substantially.
He's solid in center field with a good arm, but probably isn't a Gold Glove candidate. Because he lacks a major weakness, he's still a valuable prospect, and he'll play all of 2009 at age 22, so he has room for growth. It's just hard to see the ceiling that appeared to be there a year or two ago.
47 Jeremy Hellickson RHP Tampa Bay Rays
Hellickson needed to improve one of his offspeed pitches to raise his ceiling beyond that of a No. 4 or No. 5 starter, and he did, as his changeup was significantly better this year. He tightened his curveball as well. Hellickson has always had good fastball command and his control, always above-average, is now plus-plus: He issued just 19 unintentional walks in 152 innings this year while striking out 162.
His fastball is solid average, touching 94 but sitting 91-92, and he's using a cut fastball to keep hitters off of the straight four-seamer, but he remains homer-prone and probably always will be because of the combination of average velocity and little movement on the heater.
A pitcher needs to do two of three things to be successful in the majors: miss bats, avoid walks and keep the ball in the park. Hellickson looks like he'll be able to do the first two, so even if he ends up a 30-plus homer per year pitcher, he'll be valuable.
48 Jason Donald SS Philadelphia Phillies
Donald has no star potential, but he's major-league ready and could be a solid-average shortstop in 2009 if he had the opportunity.
He's a line-drive hitter who uses the whole field well and has good patience, although he can open up a little early and get on top of the ball or swing over it entirely. He has a little loft in his swing but will probably max out around 15-20 homers barring a major increase in strength. His arm is average for short, he gets good reads on ground balls, and is very good on the double play both as a shortstop and on the pivot as a second baseman.
The Phillies' system has players with more upside, like Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor, but Donald's ability to play in the majors right now makes him a valuable property, both to the Phillies if they ask him to fill in for Chase Utley and to other clubs if the Phillies decide to trade him.
49 Jeremy Jeffress RHP Milwaukee Brewers
Jeffress seems to have finally decided that baseball is indeed important, although a holdover a drug suspension from '07 limited him to 19 regular-season starts in 2008.
Jeffress has been clocked as high as 99 even late in starts; early in the Arizona Fall League he was sitting 92-96 and touched 98, with outstanding downhill plane on the pitch that should help him generate some ground balls. His secondary stuff remains below-average; he'll flash an 11-5 curveball with tight rotation, then will throw four that are softer and slower, maybe hanging one along the way.
He has good arm speed on his changeup, but the pitch lacks action. Jeffress' arm is, as you might imagine, very quick through his delivery, but he slows himself down slightly as he drifts off the rubber, finishing with a good long stride to maximize his velocity and bring his release point closer to the hitter.
He left the AFL early for precautionary reasons after suffering from a "tired arm" and dropping to 89-90 in his final outing, but if he's healthy and can stay out of trouble for a full year, he has a chance to be in the top 20 next January.
50 Daryl Jones OF St. Louis Cardinals
Jones is an incredible athlete who has developed rather quickly into a very good, if not outstanding, prospect.
He was -- to be kind -- atrocious in 2007, hitting just .217/.304/.296 in the Midwest League, then had offseason LASIK surgery and started to see the ball better, making more contact and showing better pitch recognition. He even carried his success forward to Double-A after a late-season promotion. Jones' only below-average tool is his arm; he's a plus runner, covers a lot of ground in center, has a good swing and shows line-drive power now with the promise of more to come.
He still has some mechanical kinks to work out in his swing -- in particular, he tends to glide and often leaves his hands far enough back that he starts to bar his front arm. His youth, his athleticism and his relative lack of baseball experience give him more chance to improve than most Double-A prospects have.
